Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) Set to Fall at Open

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) Set to Fall at Open

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) Set to Fall at Open

Another oil-induced slide in the ASX is ahead of us today after the price of the commodity slumped in trading on Friday.

While eurozone shares rose 0.4% on Friday, the US S&P 500 fell 0.7% with energy shares down 3.3% on the plunging oil price.

Watch also for any impact on the big iron ore groups from the realisation prices fell nearly 7% last week.

The weak US lead saw ASX 200 futures drop 0.6% or 37 points, meaning a weak start to trade for the ASX later this morning.

Solid rebounds on Thursday and Friday weren’t enough to stop Australian shares closing the week slightly lower. The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 14.4 points, or 0.3%, to 5716.2.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 5,859.58.

The projected lower bound is: 5,554.86.

The projected closing price is: 5,707.22.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.6865. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed up 24.900 at 5,716.200. Volume was 28% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 40% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
5,691.3005,724.3005,678.3005,716.200 430,985,504

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 5,739.07 5,939.01 6,046.81
Volatility: 16 17 12
Volume: 611,553,088 612,835,136 581,648,000

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

S&P/ASX 200 is currently 5.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 56 periods.

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