Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) Reserve Bank board meeting minutes revealed it a more cautious tone with downside risks

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) Reserve Bank board meeting minutes revealed it a more cautious tone with downside risks

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) Reserve Bank board meeting minutes revealed it a more cautious tone with downside risks

The Australian sharemarket was on the back-foot deep in the red again today as US stocks fell another 2 per cent, leaving them on track for the worst December since 1931 as global markets endured a US dollar funding crunch.

The S&P-ASX 200 index fell 1.2 per cent in early trade but domestic bargain hunters around 5600 points triggered a mid-morning bounce to a 0.7 per cent loss after the Reserve Bank board meeting minutes revealed it a more cautious tone with downside risks to their outlook for the consumer.

But it fell again to close down 68.8 points, or 1.22 per cent, at 5589.5 as Chinese stocks joined the global sell-off amid mounting concerns about decelerating global growth and the impact of US rate increases.

Investors were hoping for the US Federal Reserve to signal a pause in its rate-rise cycle on Thursday, but following comments from US President Donald Trump and some high profile investors, including Stanley Druckenmiller, there is the risk the Fed would baulk at being seen to be buckling under their pressure to back off.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards

The projected upper bound is: 5,758.41.

The projected lower bound is: 5,402.53.

The projected closing price is: 5,580.47.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.8344. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 35 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed down -68.800 at 5,589.500. Volume was 6% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
5,658.3005,658.3005,576.8005,589.500 665,486,016

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 5,630.09 5,769.68 6,023.17
Volatility: 20 20 13
Volume: 659,256,704 645,736,768 587,984,832

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

S&P/ASX 200 is currently 7.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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