Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) renewed and heightened threats by Donald Trump against Chinese goods
Australian shares are poised to fall at the open, reflecting renewed and heightened threats by Donald Trump against Chinese goods. ASX futures were 23 points lower.
The S&P/ASX 200 index shed 175.7 points, or 2.8 per cent, last week, its worst five-day performance since February.
In a blog post ahead of the jobs data, BlackRock’s chief global investment strategist Richard Turnill said he expected the market outlook to remain murky in the short term because there are so many conflicting messages.
“We believe investors are seeking resilience as they adjust to heightened economic uncertainty and moderately tighter financial conditions, partly reflecting rising trade tensions and a firmer US dollar,” Mr Turnill said.
Portfolio resilience is important, Mr Turnill also said, because “there are few indications that the US and China are close to a reconciliation on trade disputes. We do not see either side willing to compromise”.
The Australian dollar shed almost 13 per cent against the US currency since late January, and the downtrend became further entrenched on the weekend in the wake of the latest US jobs data and President Donald Trump’s decision to ratchet global trade tensions ever higher.
The local currency shed more than 1 per cent after President Trump told reporters he’s looking beyond the current $US200 billion worth of Chinese goods in line for an imminent tariff hit to a further $US267 billion worth of them.
If the Trump administration were to impose tariffs on these two sets of imports, in addition to the earlier $US50 billion of goods, virtually all Chinese goods shipped to the US would be hit.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 6,240.30.
The projected lower bound is: 6,045.27.
The projected closing price is: 6,142.78.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.8900. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 54 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -202.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
S&P/ASX 200 closed down -16.600 at 6,143.800. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,273.57 6,264.65 6,063.68
Volatility: 11 10 11
Volume: 627,179,392 555,065,344 562,975,168
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
S&P/ASX 200 is currently 1.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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