Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) Quiet Day Expected
The narrow-effects of overnight’s relief rally isn’t expected to manifest a great-deal in the ASX 200 today. SPI futures are pointing to an 8-point advance at the open this morning, backing-on from a day in which the benchmark Aussie index stripped just shy of 0.6 per cent.
he index found its comfort zone, right within its recent trend channel and just below its 20-day and 100-day EMAs. Volumes were light because of the public holidays in China, Hong Kong and parts of Australia, but not absurdly so. Sellers were drawn into the market in haste, primarily driven by fear about likely weakness in the market’s besieged financial sector. The dynamic dragged the rest of the market lower for the day, keeping the breadth of gaining stocks to below 30 per cent.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,164.65.
The projected upper bound is: 6,211.56.
The projected lower bound is: 6,035.26.
The projected closing price is: 6,123.41.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.2562. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 71 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -160.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
S&P/ASX 200 closed down -46.100 at 6,126.200. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,180.65 6,241.78 6,079.31
Volatility: 8 9 11
Volume: 633,195,008 592,729,216 565,072,576
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
S&P/ASX 200 is currently 0.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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