Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) preparing for the US Fed meeting

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) preparing for the US Fed meeting

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) preparing for the US Fed meeting

As far as developments in the trade war go, in a week bereft other major stories, traders are demonstrating tentative signs of ease on the subject. Markets are strapping themselves in for the long haul, and a begrudging acceptance that this thing will take time to play out is the prevailing mentality. With that in mind, and with only a laugh-worthy speech from US President Trump at the UN overnight to trade-off otherwise, the dominating theme is preparing for the US Fed meeting and a possible new world of gradually higher interest rates. That’s not to say that other news isn’t coming to the fore and causing volatility in pockets of financial markets, but for market-fundamentalists, everything begins with what the Fed do with US rates.

Because of this, it has been in fixed income markets that any remarkable price action occurred during the North American session. Far from it was there a great deal of volatility, especially in terms of flow on effects to equity indices, which with the Wall Street Cash (Dow Jones) and S&P 500 down 0.2 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively and the NASDAQ up by 0.2 per cent, once again traded mixed for the day. Rather, the structural shifts in markets and the subsequent revision of trader’s collective view on global interest rates continued to gradually play out, led by the belief that tomorrow morning we will see a hawkish Fed. The dynamic led to benchmark US 10 Year Treasuries to tease 7-year highs near 3.13 per cent, as interest rate traders firmed their bets that tonight’s Fed forecasts will imply 2 more hikes this year and at least another 1-and-a-half in 2019.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,165.07.

The projected upper bound is: 6,281.26.

The projected lower bound is: 6,101.22.

The projected closing price is: 6,191.24.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.4295. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 67 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 118.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed up 6.400 at 6,192.300. Volume was 0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 32% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,185.9006,210.5006,182.5006,192.300 578,760,576

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,175.97 6,248.88 6,076.10
Volatility: 8 9 11
Volume: 641,690,368 589,419,904 566,626,176

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


S&P/ASX 200 is currently 1.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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