Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) is looking at a modest rise today

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) is looking at a modest rise today

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) is looking at a modest rise today

The Federal Government and the mining industry have tried to play down the reports, while Chinese government spokesman say a ban is wrong, but add that there are delays because of unknown tests are being carried out.

Rising optimism about the US-China trade talks were overtaken by the coal bank stories on Friday and over the weekend.

Overnight trading on the SPI futures market saw an 8 point gain for the ASX 200 by the close early Saturday morning, Sydney time.

That was after eurozone shares rose 0.2% on Friday and the US S&P 500 added 0.6%, with the Dow and Nasdaq higher (See separate story).

Australian shares rose 0.5% on Friday to end up 1.7% for the week helped by earnings results, talk of rate cuts and upgrades to earnings growth expectations for resources stocks on the back of higher commodity prices (such as copper), capped by a solid week for the big banks.

Altium shares jumped 28.2% to $34.62 this week after releasing solid interim figures and forecasting $US200 million in revenue next year, with strong support from China.

Woolworths fell 4.6% after releasing weak interim results, while shares of rival Coles closed 8.5% lower at $11.53 after reporting a slow down in same-store growth in the December quarter – the profit result was immaterial because of the spin-off from Wesfarmers happened last November and most of the real profit was in the solid Wesfarmers result.

Bingo Industries fell 43.3% to $1.31 after Sydney waste collection company slashed its profit forecasts. Shares in a2milk jumped more than 13% last week after it unveiled better than expected sales figures for the December half and no sign of any slowdown in China.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 5,944.83.

The projected upper bound is: 6,305.01.

The projected lower bound is: 6,054.18.

The projected closing price is: 6,179.60.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.1027. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 75.49. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 191.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed up 28.100 at 6,167.300. Volume was 28% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,139.2006,176.2006,126.5006,167.300 788,387,072

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,092.87 5,825.45 6,008.92
Volatility: 6 14 14
Volume: 681,708,032 603,210,944 595,720,704

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

S&P/ASX 200 is currently 2.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 33 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that .AXJO is currently in an overbought condition.

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