Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) investors wait for data

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) investors wait for data

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) investors wait for data

Australian shares rebounded from some of their lows in the morning but have still closed lower for the first time in a week.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed down 18.1 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 6,199.3 points at 1615 AEDT on Tuesday, while the broader All Ordinaries was down 21.1 points, or 0.33 per cent, at 6,281.4.

There was a little bit of data to digest on Tuesday, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics announcing that net exports were slightly larger drag on the economy than expected, but a 1.6 per cent increase in government consumption had made up for it.

Also on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank announced it was keeping the official cash rate at a record low of 1.5 per cent for a 31st month, a move widely expected.

On the ASX, the consumer discretionary sector led losses, and was down 0.85 per cent.

Flight Centre was down 4.33 per cent, Harvey Norman was down 3.68 per cent and Tabcorp was down 1.46 per cent.

Consumer staples led gainers, up 0.91 per cent, with Woolworths up 1.64 per cent and Metcash up 4.87 per cent.

The falls come after the Ai Group’s Performance of Services Index released on Tuesday showed retail trade contracting in February to its lowest level since 2012 as consumer spending dried up.

Elsewhere, among the major miners, BHP was down 0.85 per cent and Rio Tinto was down 0.85 per cent.

The big four banks were mixed, with ANZ down 0.5 per cent, NAB and Westpac flat and Commonwealth up 0.32 per cent.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 5,995.25.

The projected upper bound is: 6,327.99.

The projected lower bound is: 6,095.36.

The projected closing price is: 6,211.67.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.9691. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed down -18.100 at 6,199.300. Volume was 7% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 38% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,217.4006,217.4006,175.7006,199.300 672,391,936

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,164.64 5,903.89 6,011.89
Volatility: 9 13 14
Volume: 727,466,752 606,905,600 600,981,760

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

S&P/ASX 200 is currently 3.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 40 periods.

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