Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) investors await the RBA for guidance

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) investors await the RBA for guidance

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) investors await the RBA for guidance

Australian futures are lower as investors await the RBA for guidance on the outlook for rates. ASX futures were down 14 points at 5.40am AEDT.

The US Federal Reserve released its latest statement at 6am AEDT. At the end of a two-day gathering, the Fed held interest rates steady and said ongoing strong job gains and household spending had kept the economy on track.

Local data: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy at 11.30am AEDT, Housing finance September

Overseas data: China October PPI and CPI; UK third quarter GDP, Industrial production September; US PPI final October, University of Michigan consumer sentiment November

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 6,064.92.

The projected lower bound is: 5,774.54.

The projected closing price is: 5,919.73.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 9 white candles and 1 black candles for a net of 8 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 96.9175. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 115.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed up 31.300 at 5,928.200. Volume was 3% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 32% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
5,896.9005,935.5005,896.9005,928.200 563,112,448

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 5,823.72 6,037.75 6,058.42
Volatility: 10 16 13
Volume: 618,355,648 603,932,992 583,037,248

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

S&P/ASX 200 is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 45 periods.

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