Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) heading into a busy month for global investors

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) heading into a busy month for global investors

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) heading into a busy month for global investors

Australian shares advanced to a six-month high on Monday as investor sentiment remained positive heading into a busy month for global investors.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 24.7 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 6217.4 while the broader All Ordinaries rose 28.7 points, or 0.5 per cent to 6302.5.

“Following a robust recovery for risk assets since the start of the year, a number of events in March are going to set the tone for global investors on whether this rebound is sustainable,” said JP Morgan Asset Management Asia Pacific chief market strategist Tai Hui.

Fourth quarter GDP partials are indicating Wednesday’s economic growth print will be weak, with some economics anticipating a near flat result. “We expect that Wednesday’s GDP data will show growth of around 0.2 per cent in the December quarter, or 2.4 per cent year on year which is a soft outcome and well below Australia’s potential growth,” said AMP Capital senior economist Diana Mousina. “But, the weakness in today’s business indicators data means that we would not be surprised to see growth print below our 0.2 per cent forecast.” Market consensus forecasts are for Wednesday’s GDP growth to print at 0.5 per cent for the quarter.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 5,988.71.

The projected upper bound is: 6,345.90.

The projected lower bound is: 6,114.01.

The projected closing price is: 6,229.96.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.8109. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 72.96. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 145.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed up 24.700 at 6,217.400. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 37% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,192.7006,240.1006,192.7006,217.400 575,581,184

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,155.40 5,891.51 6,011.11
Volatility: 8 13 14
Volume: 723,867,968 607,727,232 600,088,832

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


S&P/ASX 200 is currently 3.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .AXJO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 39 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that .AXJO is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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