Home Stocks Australia Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) has retreated quite sharply in the past week

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) has retreated quite sharply in the past week


Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) has retreated quite sharply in the past week

Is the party over at last for the ASX 200?

The Australian stock benchmark defied trade-gloom and diminished global risk appetite quite well up until the end of last week. Rising iron ore prices and a weaker Australian Dollar burnished the appeal of what should probably have been among the hardest hit indexes of all given Australia’s clear links to both China and the US.

Still, despite some fundamental resilience, I suggested last week that the index may well be tiring, and so it seems to have proven since. Admittedly the index remains just within the uptrend channel which has bounded trade since February 4. However, its slide toward the channel base has accelerated sharply since April 22 and a test now seems likely, possibly quite soon.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,270.74.

The projected upper bound is: 6,451.52.

The projected lower bound is: 6,219.89.

The projected closing price is: 6,335.70.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.9597. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.92. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -109.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed up 11.900 at 6,332.400. Volume was 15% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 36% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,320.5006,343.0006,315.6006,332.400 732,158,976

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,427.71 6,306.20 6,042.89
Volatility: 10 12 14
Volume: 646,809,920 591,831,936 620,153,344

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


S&P/ASX 200 is currently 4.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 33 periods.

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