Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) has outperformed its global peers so far this year
The outperformance of the Australian benchmark versus other developed markets appears to have run its course, as the prospect of interest rate cuts is overtaken by concerns around slackening earnings growth amid a global economic slowdown.
Fund managers say that growth stocks and interest rate-sensitive bond proxies are best placed to withstand such conditions, which is good news for high-octane digital names trading at elevated multiples, but less optimistic for value plays.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index has outperformed its global peers so far this year, bolstered by better than expected earnings and a changing bias from the Reserve Bank. The benchmark index has risen 9.9 per cent this year while the S&P 500 is up 9.4 per cent.
Friday’s US employment report showed non-farm payroll rose by just 20,000, well short of expectations of a 180,000 job rise and the weakest result since September 2017.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,011.87.
The projected upper bound is: 6,331.12.
The projected lower bound is: 6,104.88.
The projected closing price is: 6,218.00.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.9846. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
S&P/ASX 200 closed down -60.100 at 6,203.800. Volume was 3% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,195.67 5,948.81 6,014.95
Volatility: 11 12 14
Volume: 726,059,008 598,121,216 604,259,264
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
S&P/ASX 200 is currently 3.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 43 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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