Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) greater degree of sensitivity to trade tensions

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) greater degree of sensitivity to trade tensions

Australia: S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) greater degree of sensitivity to trade tensions

The Australian sharemarket surrendered most of the low-volume gains made late last week after US stocks fell on Friday and tumbling commodity prices saw heavy selling of resource stocks.

Major-bank bargain hunting halved early losses on the S&P-ASX 200 index to 0.4 per cent mid-session, but sellers returned in the afternoon and the index closed down 44.6 points, or 0.78 per cent, at 5671.6 with materials stocks down more than 2 per cent on average.

After defying Asian market weakness last week the ASX was on the back-foot today as other Asian markets rallied on hopes tumbling oil prices would provide welcome boost to consumer spending and that the US Federal Reserve would be forced to slow its pace of rate increases next year from the four expected.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 5,901.26.

The projected upper bound is: 5,813.91.

The projected lower bound is: 5,508.76.

The projected closing price is: 5,661.33.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.8529. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

S&P/ASX 200 closed down -44.600 at 5,671.600. Volume was 5% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
5,716.2005,716.2005,655.6005,671.600 631,171,072

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 5,712.10 5,928.74 6,045.89
Volatility: 16 17 12
Volume: 615,891,072 615,537,344 581,854,080

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


S&P/ASX 200 is currently 6.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .AXJO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .AXJO and have had this outlook for the last 57 periods.

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