August Dog Days with an Eclipse of the Sun Added
Suspicious stock traders with too much computer power allude to finding the Key to the next stock market crash, The Solar Eclipse.
Tired of political and most geo-economic drama that cannot be traded, some have turned their attention to an obscure theory that says market reversals tend to begin around the time of a Lunar Eclipse and end around the time of a Solar Eclipse.
In discussions with colleagues and friends, traders are sharing information about the superstitious hypothesis, joking that Monday’s total Eclipse of the Sun could help make sense of the market’s recent dip.
Referring to the notion as the “Puetz Crash Window,” Steve Puetz, said he became interested after reading about it following “Black Monday” in Y 1987.
“Not every eclipse turns into a crash,” says Mr. Puetz, who is retired and spends his time studying cycles. “You need a bubble to have a crash, but when a bubble forms, they tend to crash near the time of a Lunar Eclipse.”
Mr. Puetz has no idea why this may happen, and points out that the DJIA hit a record high on 7 August, the same day there was a Lunar Eclipse.
Seasonality and consumer sentiment may also come into play, he says. One factor he doesn’t pay attention to is headlines, aka The Noise!
“I sort of discount the news,” he said Friday in a phone interview. “Even when there is like positive or negative news, a day or 2 later, the market would rebound, depending on whether it’s in a bullish or Bearish trend.”
Sometimes, Ms. Puetz gets emails from traders who want to learn more about the theory, especially when an eclipse is about to happen, he said.
In an Amazon review of a book Mr. Puetz wrote, 1 person said they bought it to use for trading. “I wanted to see how well these theoretical cycles could hold up to actual stock market behavior; the result, surprisingly well,” they wrote.
A reviewer recommended avoiding his book, and said much of it was “based on generalities” and not objective science.
“It may not make a lot of sense to a lot of people, but I am more a statistician,” Mr. Puetz said about the eclipse phenomenon. “It just happens an unusually large amount of times, and I cannot explain it. But it seems to be significant.”
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Neutral (-0.12)||Neutral (0.07)||Neutral (-0.21)||Neutral (-0.21)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Neutral (-0.14)||Neutral (-0.09)||Neutral (0.02)||Bearish (-0.33)|
Have a terrific week.