Atlanta Fed Sees US GDP at 3.3% in Q-4

Atlanta Fed Sees US GDP at 3.3% in Q-4

Atlanta Fed Sees US GDP at 3.3% in Q-4

The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 3.3% annualized pace in Q-4 based on the latest data on US NFPs and business inventories, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Friday.

The latest estimate for Q-4 GDP (gross domestic product) growth was slower than the growth rate calculated on Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed said.

Meanwhile, US job growth accelerated in October after hurricane-related disruptions in the prior month, but wages grew at their slowest annual pace in more than 1.5 years in a sign that inflation probably will remain benign.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 261,000 last month as 106,000 leisure and hospitality workers returned to work, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. That was the largest gain since July 2016 but below economists’ expectations for a jump of 310,000 jobs.

Data for September was revised to show a gain of 18,000 jobs instead of a decline of 33,000 as previously reported.

The White House, which is pushing a Republican-backed package of tax cuts to boost economic growth and employment, trumpeted the payrolls gains.

“Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!” President Donald Trump Tweeted after the release of the report.

Average hourly earnings slipped 1 cent in October, leaving them unchanged in percentage terms, in part due to the return of the lower-paid leisure and hospitality workers.

Wages shot up 0.5% in September. They were up 2.4% on a Y-Y basis last month, the smallest gain since February 2016, after a 2.8% advance in August.

October’s job growth acceleration reinforced the Fed’s assessment Wednesday that “the labor market has continued to strengthen,” and the sluggish wage data did little to change expectations it will raise interest rates in December.

The central bank has increased rates 2X this year.

Have a terrific week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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