Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-2 GDP View to 4.1%

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-2 GDP View to 4.1%

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-2 GDP View to 4.1%

The US economy is growing at a 4.1% annualized rate in Q-2 following the latest data on consumer spending, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Monday.

The latest estimate on gross domestic product growth was slower than the 3.7 percent pace estimated Friday, the Atlanta Fed said.

After Monday morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of Q-2 real government spending growth increased from 0.8 to 1.6%, while the nowcast of Q-2 real non-residential structures investment growth decreased from 7.6 to 5.3%.

The US Commerce Department said construction spending increased 0.4% in May. Data for April was revised down to show construction outlays rising 0.9% instead of the previously reported 1.8% rise.The government revised the construction spending data going back to January 2011 in the May report.

The nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 2.7% and 4.0%, respectively, to 2.9% and 4.8%, respectively, after Monday morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said Monday its index of national factory activity jumped to a reading of 60.2 last month from 58.7 in May. A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the US economy.

The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for June—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.15 to 0.77 after the ISM report.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, 6 July.

Have a terrific 4th of July Freedom Week

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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