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Australian Dollar News
China’s Industrial Profits surged by 19.6 Percent, but AUD/USD hardly reacted to the news. The pair posted higher highs and lows this week and is now targeting the 2019 high of 0.7295m helped by the lower than expected decline in Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure – to keep RBA on the sidelines for now. The reading used as a gauge for business investment fell 5.9 Percent in the second quarter of this year, much less than the expected 8.2 Percent decline.
The Reserve Bank of Australia would be happy with the readings as its current wait-and-watch approach could be extended to its next meeting on September 1. The central bank had indicated that the first-half downturn was lesser than anticipated. Also, the bank had ruled out negative interest rate as a policy tool.
Governor Philp Lowe might continue with the yield-target program, and Australia’s different approach in managing their monetary policy might help the Australian dollar to stay afloat against the US dollar. The greenback has been in weak position ever since the US central bank opened its coffers: to fund the purchase of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities. This purchase program would be continued at least at the current pace, according to the Fed’s earlier statement.
In the Fed Economic Symposium, market participants are looking for clues of changes in the emergency measures in 2021. If any indication in that direction comes forth, then there will be a material shift in the AUD/USD behaviour ahead. The FOMC minutes had discussed an outcome-based approach versus calendar-based forward guidance for monetary policy.
All said, the chances of significant shift is relatively rare, and the event may only confirm the current policy stance for the months ahead as the FOMC had voted earlier to extend the US Dollar liquidity swap lines through March 31, 2021. In that case, the Australian dollar might appreciate against the US dollar as the crowding behaviour in the pair looks strong to persist ahead.
AUD/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
AUD/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.74.
The projected lower bound is: 0.72.
The projected closing price is: 0.73.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 5 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 16 black candles for a net of 17 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.2918. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 144.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.726. Volume was 92% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 0.726 0.727 0.725 0.726 7,211
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 0.72 0.71 0.67 Volatility: 8 9 15 Volume: 65,006 83,018 79,588
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 7.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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