As Uncertainty Fades, Confidence Grows…Overcome Fear

As Uncertainty Fades, Confidence Grows…Overcome Fear

Uncertainty about the continuing spread of the C-19 coronavirus makes people fear for their lives and their livelihoods. Uncertainty about their livelihoods makes them cautious about spending.

And under high uncertainty, business leaders find it impossible to make reliable plans for investment.

This uncertainty is toxic for our economic recovery.

The objective now must be to crush uncertainty as soon as possible. As we have seen in prior crises, when uncertainty subsides, confidence returns and economic recovery unlocks and the C-19 coronavirus chaos has created the highest level of uncertainty in 35 years.

Analysts estimate that from now to the end of Y 2023, the difference in lost global GDP between economic scenarios with only partial virus-spread control and those in “near-Zero virus” situations will be as much as $15-T.

The development of 80% C-19 coronavirus herd immunity will likely emerge. And the discovery of effective treatments or vaccines will crush uncertainty instantly. It is not clear yet when such solutions will become available.

Lockdowns are causing uncertainty to remain high, as the extent of the structural damage to the economy becomes less predictable the longer lockdowns stay in place.

This uncertainty is paralyzing.

Government leaders lack the data on which to base their decisions about safely relaxing lockdowns.

Bankers do not extend credit, because they do not know when their clients’ businesses will be back in operation.

Manufacturers reshape capital-investment programs because they do not know how much cash they will need on their balance sheets to survive the crisis.

Shopkeepers and restaurateurs are forced into bankruptcy because they do not know when customers will return.

And consumers continue to defer discretionary spending, as they are unsure when their lives will be back a level of normality.

Communicating clearly to The People about actions, timelines, and expected outcomes is Key factor. The more factual and forward looking the messages are, the faster confidence will return and the faster economic recovery begins.

The C-19 coronavirus has been captured, now we must to crush uncertainty and rebuild confidence to avert structural damage to the economy, and do it fast.

President Trump is leading the way in this war against fear.

Lives and livelihoods of The People depend on it.

Have a healthy weekend, Keep the Faith!

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he it the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.