Shareholders in Apple have had a strong 2020. AAPL stock is up over 67% year-to-date (YTD). However, since hitting an all-time high of $137.98, the shares have come under pressure and fell to $103.10 on Sept. 21. They are currently shy of $123.
The 52-week range for the shares has been $53.15 to $137.98. In the coming weeks, I expect AAPL stock to be largely range-bound between $115 and $125. Long-term investors may regard dips as buying opportunities, before shares hit new all-time highs in the coming quarters. Here’s why.
Over the past decade, Apple has become one of the undisputed technology leaders in the smartphone and consumer electronics industry. For example, in October, the company released various models of the iPhone 12 with 5G connectivity. Consumers and investors alike had been eagerly waiting for the new phones.
As the first U.S. company to reach a market capitalization of $2 trillion, Apple is the darling of Wall Street. It is a coveted member of the NASDAQ-100 index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the S&P 500 index.
In late October, the company announced robust Q4 results as the “company revenue set September quarter record [and] Services and Mac revenue reach a new all-time high.” Revenue of $64.7 billion translated into earnings per diluted share of 73 cents. Sales from overseas markets accounted for 59% of the quarterly revenue.
However, the ever-important iPhone revenue, which came at $26.44 billion, was below estimates. It was also down 20.7% year-over-year (YoY).
Management did not offer guidance for the quarter ending in December, meaning investors do not get a clear idea of how the sales of the iPhone 12 could be. Since the release of Q4 results, AAPL stock has failed to make a sustained move up.
Apple shares are widely followed by institutions, retail investors and day-traders. Although it has become a darling among investors, making new highs requires solid fundamental metrics. In Apple’s case, strong sales numbers from iPhones are the crucial driver. However, Q4 metrics have failed to provide the assurance that phone sales will continue to be strong in the coming months.
Bottom Line on AAPL Stock
The current positive vaccine news has also meant a rotation into value stocks that have been recently ignored. Therefore, many tech names, including Apple stock, have failed to go up in price.
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers and portable digital music players.
The Company sells a range of related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications.
The Company’s segments include the Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan and Rest of Asia Pacific.
The Americas segment includes both North and South America. The Europe segment includes European countries, India, the Middle East and Africa.
The Greater China segment includes China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and the Asian countries not included in the Company’s other operating segments.
Its products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple Watch, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, iPhone OS (iOS), OS X and watchOS operating systems, iCloud, Apple Pay and a range of accessory, service and support offerings.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 114.60.
The projected upper bound is: 131.42.
The projected lower bound is: 115.19.
The projected closing price is: 123.31.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.9015. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.92. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 62 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
APPLE INC closed up 0.360 at 123.080. Volume was 42% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 54% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 122.020 123.370 120.890 123.080 89,004,192
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 118.05 116.32 94.83 Volatility: 31 45 61 Volume: 97,564,464 121,694,248 167,202,448
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
APPLE INC is currently 29.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.