Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) sits at crucial crossroads after June rally
Apple shares raced into July.
The stock surged 2% on Monday, adding to a nearly 30% advance for the year, after a pause on additional tariffs between the U.S. and China reignited hopes of trade progress.
Its rally now faces a major test, says Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.
“It’s at a key technical juncture right now, at least on an intermediate-term basis, because this huge rally it’s seen this year, especially the most recent one, which is about 16% in just one month, has taken it right up to the upper line of what’s called a symmetrical triangle pattern on a multi-year basis,” said Maley on CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Monday. “If it can break above that it’s going to be bullish for the stock.”
Apple would need to reach at least $210 to break out above the upper band of its symmetrical triangle pattern. That marks a roughly 4% rally from its current level at less than $202.
Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, says concerns linger for Apple and similar large-cap tech and growth stocks.
“Overall trade concerns are a major concern for this company as well as global growth concerns so that’s the reality with this company,” said Morganlander during the same segment. “Although it’s cash and debt neutral, that cash has been eaten up by stock buybacks that have given it this illusionary effect of earnings growth. Again, we would like to see organic earnings growth, organic revenue growth, and this is one that doesn’t show the earmarks of that.”
Apple is expected to post negative earnings growth in its second, third, and fourth quarters, according to FactSet estimates. Analysts expect earnings to contract by 4% in fiscal 2019.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 213.02.
The projected lower bound is: 192.37.
The projected closing price is: 202.69.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 63.5689. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 131.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
APPLE INC closed up 1.180 at 202.730. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
201.410 203.132 201.360 202.730 16,935,216
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 199.20 194.02 188.39
Volatility: 21 34 40
Volume: 25,205,938 28,914,456 33,933,708
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
APPLE INC is currently 7.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into AAPL.O (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.
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