Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have stalled with iPhone sales, but medical breaththroughs using the Watch are coming
If you took good advice and have just held Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock, say for five years, your patience has been rewarded. AAPL stock has more than doubled the gain in the S&P average, rising 109%, and delivered a stream of dividends rising from 47 cents per quarter to today’s 77 cents.
Is AAPL Stock Bound to Be Left in the Dust?
If you’ve tried to time Apple, getting in right after bad news, you may be out of the money.
Traders recognize the company is caught between two eras, that of the iPhone and that of the Apple Watch. Results will be choppy until the chasm is crossed. How long that will take is anyone’s guess. Some don’t even think Apple will cross it.
Shares that traded as high as $220 last year, and for less than $150 at the start of 2019, were due to open June 10 at $190. That’s a market cap of $875 billion. By comparison, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), has sailed past $1 trillion and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is now at $888 billion.
Cut into an Apple and it will start to brown at the cut. Rot, in nature or in business, can appear quickly, unless innovation is obvious.
Apple today isn’t seen as an innovator. The iPhone was announced in 2007, and sales peaked in 2015. This product has consistently represented over half Apple’s revenue since 2013.
This is why Apple sales are down this year, but not by nearly as much as iPhone sales. Services, increasingly delivered by Apple’s own cloud, have taken up some of the slack.
This has become a primary focus, with Apple getting into TV, payments, gaming and news subscriptions. But with 20% growth adding less than what’s lost with reduced iPhone sales, analysts have become dissatisfied. Only half now have it as a buy, and three even say sell it.
The Next Gold Mine
As baby boomers continue to age, and as health care costs continue to increase, Apple has a new gold mine ready to open. Things like games, news and even TV are just placeholders.
It’s because of the Apple Watch that CEO Tim Cook has begun emphasizing privacy, and dissing fellow cloud czars Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) in public statements.
That’s because the Apple Watch can save lives. It’s not yet a full-fledged health device, and there are plenty of doctors claiming it can’t be trusted in that way.
But it doesn’t have to be.
That’s because three-quarters of the $3.5 trillion U.S. health bill involves chronic conditions like heart disease and diabetes.
Even at its present, primitive level, Apple helps in cardiology, telling patients when they need to see a doctor for detailed tests.
The big money will come from monitoring sugar levels. Apple has been working toward this for years and there are external devices that connect to the Watch. Getting monitoring into the Watch, making it non-invasive, is the next step.
Diabetes was a $327 billion market in 2017, up from $245 billion in 2012, and 67% of that cost is paid by government. Even small improvements in diabetes monitoring can create big dividends. And then you have the Watch, for getting more services.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 188.65.
The projected upper bound is: 204.97.
The projected lower bound is: 184.84.
The projected closing price is: 194.91.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.9756. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 167.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
APPLE INC closed up 2.230 at 194.810. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 3% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
194.860 196.000 193.600 194.810 26,932,882
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 182.90 194.34 190.24
Volatility: 30 33 40
Volume: 28,424,504 29,061,526 34,668,536
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
APPLE INC is currently 2.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.
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