Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) long-term value

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) long-term value

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) long-term value

A 5% dividend growth rate for Apple seems conservative. Apple’s dividends have increased by 12% a year since Apple instituted a dividend in 2012; Apple’s earnings per share have increased at a 30% annual rate over the past 10 years, and at a 13% annual rate over the previous five years.

Many fear that Apple is no longer a premiere growth stock. It certainly gets harder to maintain a crazy growth rate as a company gets larger but, still, it is hard to imagine that Apple will grow more slowly than the average company in the S&P 500 over the next 10- to 20 years. Plus, there is nothing inherently bad about being a mature money machine. In fact, it may be a safer investment than a young startup with nothing more than hoped-for profits in the future.

Apple has tens (or perhaps hundreds) of millions of devoted customers thriving in the Apple ecosystem, where elegant Apple products are seamlessly interconnected and work right out of the box: iPhones; iPads; iMacs; Apple Watches; AirPods; iTunes; iPods; the iCloud, and more. Apple had been No. 1 in Fortune magazine’s annual ratings of the most admired companies for 11 years running.

To be sure, Apple’s earnings certainly won’t grow by 30% forever, nor will its dividends grow by 10% forever, but a 5% growth rate for dividends is surely conservative. Let’s suppose that Apple’s dividends grow at 10% a year for 10- or 20 years, then drop to a 5% growth rate. The table below shows the implied returns for shareholders who are long-term investors.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 192.25.

The projected lower bound is: 178.46.

The projected closing price is: 185.36.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 60.7143. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.04. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

APPLE INC closed down -0.390 at 185.110. Volume was 24% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
186.290 187.190 182.910 185.110 22,737,666

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 185.27 183.84 172.53
Volatility: 16 25 26
Volume: 24,722,486 28,374,552 30,831,606

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

APPLE INC is currently 7.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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