Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) investors fear that Apple’s high-growth days are long behind it

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) investors fear that Apple’s high-growth days are long behind it

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) investors fear that Apple’s high-growth days are long behind it

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has seen a lot of controversy lately, falling from its former leadership position atop the list of stocks with the highest market capitalizations. With concerns that iPhone sales are starting to struggle, many investors fear that Apple’s high-growth days are long behind it.

Yet one often-overlooked aspect of Apple’s success is how it’s returned capital to shareholders. Despite spending billions on stock buybacks over the years, Apple has also been committed to regularly raising its dividend. After boosting its payout by 16% in 2018, Apple reached the seven-year mark in making consecutive annual dividend increases. But with business-related worries, will dividend increases stop for the foreseeable future? Let’s look at Apple more closely to see what’s in store for 2019.

A short history of Apple’s dividends

For most of its existence, Apple didn’t pay a dividend. That was consistent with how tech companies usually worked, instead reinvesting available cash back into their businesses. After starting out with a modest payout, Apple discontinued its dividends in the mid-1990s to focus more on growth opportunities.

By 2012, though, Apple had achieved huge success. In response to having so much cash on its balance sheet and free cash flow coming in, Apple started paying a dividend again. The tech giant set an initial yield of about 2%, with a payout ratio of about 30% of its earnings.

In seven years, Apple’s dividend yield hasn’t really gone anywhere, but that’s not for lack of trying. The stock has exploded higher, but the pace of the dividend increases that Apple has paid its shareholders has largely matched the stock’s moves. Most of the company’s hikes have been in the vicinity of 10% in recent years, but the most recent 16% boost marked an acceleration that stemmed in part from the positive future impact of tax reform.

Will Apple raise its dividend in 2019?

Despite worries, it’s almost certain that Apple will continue to share its bounty with shareholders in the form of larger dividends in 2019. An increase to $0.80 per share quarterly near the middle of the year would be consistent with its old unofficial 10% target for past dividend hikes. That makes a good benchmark against which to measure whatever Apple chooses to do with its quarterly payout in the coming year.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 181.60.

The projected upper bound is: 162.81.

The projected lower bound is: 130.81.

The projected closing price is: 146.81.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 37.2677. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 35.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -114.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

APPLE INC closed up 6.070 at 148.260. Volume was 43% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
144.530 148.550 143.800 148.260 58,607,072

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 153.01 182.07 192.89
Volatility: 85 58 39
Volume: 57,364,004 46,499,192 33,515,734

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

APPLE INC is currently 23.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 58 periods.

The following two tabs change content below.
HEFFX has become one of Asia’s leading financial services companies with interests in Publishing, Private Equity, Capital Markets, Mining, Retail, Transport and Agriculture that span every continent of the world. Our clearing partners have unprecedented experience in Equities, Options, Forex and Commodities brokering, banking, physical metals dealing, floor brokering and trading.

You must be logged in to post comments :  
CONNECT WITH