Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Hardware Sales Are Reaching Limits
On various occasions, I’ve suggested that Apple has been an anomaly in that it can make serious money on hardware. In general, tech companies that make big profits in hardware tend to lose strength quickly. It’s simply too easy for competitors to make similar products at lower prices. For every Apple that dominates a field for ages, you have a Nokia or Blackberry (NYSE:BB) that has a few peak years and then fades to irrelevancy.
However, it’s starting to look like even Apple is running into limits in terms of how much profits it can wring out of hardware. The addressable share of the market for high-end smartphones is only so large. Particularly in emerging markets, most people will buy cheaper options from the likes of Samsung or Huawei. And even on iPhone pricing, there appears to be a ceiling where some people say enough is enough.
Throw in how powerful the average iPhone is now, and users feel less compelled to upgrade with every new product launch. In general, there simply isn’t a must-have feature with each new model that drives upgrades if users’ previous phone is still working and holds a good charge.
Apple Turns to Services
Last week, Apple announced a ton of new and improved service offerings. Arguably the most interesting and important of these was the news of an Apple Card to take on the likes of Visa (NYSE:V). Partnering with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA) for payment processing, the Apple Card could theoretically be a serious rival to Visa. That wasn’t it for announcements though. Apple is also rolling out an improved version of Apple TV, an Apple News feature, and an Apple Arcade gaming service.
In theory, these could all be interesting additions for Apple that could add significant revenue streams. Apple News, for example, by offering a subscription service for journalism could help that industry turn its fortunes around in the digital age, as Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) did for music. It’s unlikely to generate big revenues for Apple at least in the near term though. Same for the arcade, which may shift revenues from in app purchases to subscription but is unlikely to make the overall pie much bigger, at least in the short run.
And for the bigger announcements, there are serious questions about both. Apple TV+ seems too small to be a serious Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) challenger. If Apple spends $1 billion a year on original content, that’s something, but it’s only a drop in the bucket compared to Netflix’s $8 billion budget, to say nothing of Disney (NYSE:DIS) and other traditional content creators. And over in credit cards, our Josh Enomoto described how Apple’s card is a “gimmicky” offering which brings more “hype than substance”. For now, Apple has a lot left to prove with its new services offerings.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 181.41.
The projected upper bound is: 205.48.
The projected lower bound is: 190.29.
The projected closing price is: 197.89.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.0186. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 73.28. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 129.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
APPLE INC closed up 1.310 at 197.000. Volume was 47% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
196.450 197.100 195.930 197.000 18,526,644
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 191.60 177.71 190.70
Volatility: 15 28 38
Volume: 27,937,902 28,764,784 33,407,226
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
APPLE INC is currently 3.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into AAPL.O (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 49 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that AAPL.O is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.