Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Betting Big on This Year’s iPhones

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Betting Big on This Year’s iPhones

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Betting Big on This Year’s iPhones

Ahead of the current Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone product cycle, many investors and analysts were expecting the introduction of the iPhone X — the first redesigned iPhone in years — to drive substantial iPhone upgrade activity, fueling significant iPhone unit shipment growth.

However, that growth didn’t materialize. During the first half of fiscal year 2018 — that’s the current fiscal year — Apple reported that iPhone unit shipments were up a smidgen year over year, but it wasn’t anything to write home about. On the bright side, Apple shipped a richer mix of iPhones, which helped drive iPhone selling prices and iPhone revenue up substantially.

Per a new report from analysts with BlueFin Research Partners (via Barron’s), Apple seems quite optimistic about its upcoming iPhone product cycle — at least based on the number of next-generation iPhones that the analysts say Apple is instructing its supply chain to build.

Big numbers

The analysts claim that Apple is planning to manufacture 91 million of the new iPhones during the second half of calendar year 2018 with an additional 92 million units rolling off the production lines in the first half of calendar year 2019. The analysts say that production plan for the first half of 2019 in particular would be “far larger than normal cycles.”

Interestingly, the analysts said that the relatively muted product cycles that Apple has seen over the last couple of years “was below historical patterns for myriad reasons.” Those reasons include “size, cost, [and] lack of differentiation from previous models.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 197.23.

The projected lower bound is: 184.59.

The projected closing price is: 190.91.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.7208. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 204.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

APPLE INC closed down -0.230 at 190.350. Volume was 44% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 42% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
190.710 191.280 190.180 190.350 15,939,149

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 186.46 186.67 173.43
Volatility: 18 22 26
Volume: 19,142,882 25,849,988 30,276,872

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

APPLE INC is currently 9.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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