Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) 5G iPhone’s performance rests on the shoulders of the carriers
Anticipation continues to grow for the 2020 iPhone which is expected to be Apple’s first iPhone with 5G. It will spell a huge connectivity shift for the company and allow users to take advantage of blisteringly fast wireless speeds. That, however, is completely dependent on wireless carriers getting 5G rolled out across the United States, and according to Loup Ventures managing partner Gene Munster, that is exactly why investors should be cautious about the company’s stock performance next year.
In an interview with CNBC, Munster said that investors should not expect the 5G iPhone to boost Apple’s stock price as much as has been speculated, and he blames the over projection on the misunderstanding of how much 5G coverage there actually will be next year for consumers.
“The first year of 5G for the iPhone will be a disappointment for investors … ultimately, this is a massive opportunity for Apple, huge play on 5G, but it’s going to take a while for networks to roll out coverage.”
Verizon has reportedly promised that half of the U.S. will receive 5G coverage by 2020, and according to 9to5Mac, other carriers have claimed that their 5G coverage could reach as high as 75% by the end of next year. Munster refutes these projections, saying that they are “optimistic at the best case”.
Disappointing sales would rest “largely on the shoulders of the carriers who have talked a lot about the 75% coverage by the end of next year. I think that that is optimistic at the best case.”
If the carriers do happen to deliver, however, the demand for a 5G iPhone is growing. In a recent survey conducted by Piper Jaffray, “of the 1,050 current iPhone owners who responded, 23% said they would upgrade to a $1,200 5G iPhone, up from 18% of participants a few months earlier”.
Regardless of how things shake out with the 5G iPhone and the carriers, Munster is still bullish on Apple’s performance overall for next year, speculating that the current $246 stock price could reach as high $350 to $400.
“I think that this is going to be one of the best performers, if not the top tech performer next year as well.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 284.70.
The projected lower bound is: 267.78.
The projected closing price is: 276.24.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 34 white candles and 15 black candles for a net of 19 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 94.0177. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 164.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
APPLE INC closed up 3.690 at 275.150. Volume was 28% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 34% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
271.460 275.300 270.930 275.150 33,432,806
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 267.44 253.44 213.36
Volatility: 24 22 29
Volume: 25,749,830 24,535,304 27,099,210
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
APPLE INC is currently 29.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 81 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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