Analysts are projecting much faster revenue growth by Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA)
Analysts are also projecting much faster revenue growth by Alibaba in the next few quarters in comparison to JD. Currently, eMarketer has estimated 58.2% market share for Alibaba while JD’s share has dropped to 16.3%.
We should continue to see better performance from Alibaba in comparison to JD because of faster growth in segments like cloud computing. Alibaba has also invested heavily in international regions which should give BABA stock a better growth trajectory. If the market share decline in JD continues, it would be a much lower threat to Alibaba’s ecommerce segment.
Alibaba has been able to deliver better revenue growth than its chief rival JD. This has increased the e-commerce market share of the company in China. It has helped in improving the ecosystem of new services, which are built around Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall platform. Having a high market share improves the pricing power of the company, which should help in expanding the margins.
New rivals like Pinduoduo might take some of the market share lost by JD. However, Alibaba has proved that its business model is more successful in the domestic Chinese market. New growth segments like cloud and digital media should allow the company to deliver high growth rates in the near term.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 165.70.
The projected upper bound is: 198.01.
The projected lower bound is: 178.35.
The projected closing price is: 188.18.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.0789. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 76.75. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 104.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
ALIBABA GRP ADR closed up 3.370 at 187.250. Volume was 29% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 9% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
186.510 187.340 184.460 187.250 2,854,673
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 179.50 158.53 168.57
Volatility: 26 42 43
Volume: 3,171,416 3,414,689 4,197,197
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 11.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BABA.N (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.N and have had this outlook for the last 33 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BABA.N is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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