United States Oil (USO) U.S.-China trade woes weighed on energy-demand prospects

United States Oil (USO) U.S.-China trade woes weighed on energy-demand prospects

U.S. prices settled lower Tuesday as U.S.-China trade woes weighed on energy-demand prospects. However, Middle East tensions provided some support for the global benchmark.

West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery CLM19, -0.13% lost 11 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $62.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI settled at $63.10 Monday, the highest finish for a front-month contract since May 1, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The June contract expired at the day’s settlement. The new front-month July WTI oil CLN19, -0.87% contract fell 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $63.13.

Global benchmark July Brent BRNN19, -0.62% meanwhile, added 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $72.18 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe following two consecutive declines.

“Oil has been choppy and sideways so far this week due to a few key, conflicting market developments,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

News that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are likely to extend their production-cut deal into the second half of the year, “paired with elevated tensions with Iran are both offering some price support,” he said. “However, the most recent escalation in the trade war is acting as a headwind.”

“The U.S.-China trade war…has already surprised markets by intensifying further than anyone initially expected, and because of that, near term risks are skewed to the downside right now,” said Richey.

Middle East tensions were reignited after Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthi rebels on Tuesday took responsibility for an attack on a Saudi airport and military base with a bomb-laden drone, an assault acknowledged by the kingdom as Mideast tensions remain high between Tehran and the United States.

The attack on the Saudi city of Najran came after Iran announced it has quadrupled its uranium-enrichment production capacity, a year after the U.S. withdrew from its global nuclear deal pact.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 13.66.

The projected lower bound is: 12.65.

The projected closing price is: 13.16.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.7663. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 101.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.020 at 13.130. Volume was 34% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
13.110 13.170 13.050 13.130 14,720,099

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 12.96 12.91 12.73
Volatility: 17 25 37
Volume: 22,170,078 21,490,204 25,165,102

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 3.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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