United States Oil (USO) EIA cuts forecasts on prices

United States Oil (USO) EIA cuts forecasts on prices

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its forecasts for oil prices and U.S. crude-oil production, according to its Short-term Energy Outlook report released Tuesday.

The EIA forecasts 2019 U.S. crude production of 12.32 million barrels a day, down 1% from the May forecast. It also cut its 2020 output view by 0.9% to 13.26 million barrels a day. For 2019, the government agency lowered its West Texas Intermediate crude price outlook by 5.6% to $59.29 a barrel and its Brent view by 4.2% to $66.69.

It left the WTI and Brent price outlooks for 2020 unchanged at $63 for WTI and $67 for Brent. Oil futures were mixed following the report. August Brent BRNQ19, -1.35% was down 5 cents, or nearly 0.1%, at $62.24 a barrel. July WTI CLN19, -1.45% added 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $53.36 a barrel.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 12.06.

The projected upper bound is: 11.78.

The projected lower bound is: 10.38.

The projected closing price is: 11.08.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.5305. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed unchanged at 11.110. Volume was 17% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 158% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.190 11.220 11.035 11.110 18,884,916

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.25 12.70 12.56
Volatility: 49 36 39
Volume: 30,328,914 24,564,362 25,798,176

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 11.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods.

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