The Gold Rally Stalled…


Macro events stalled the rally in Gold over the past 2 months.  Now, it appears Gold is set up for another rally pushing much higher.

Gold broke down from a Bull Market in Ys 2012/2013, that is nearly 7 years ago.  Now, Gold has broken resistance near 1375 and is technically in a full-fledged Bull Market. 

The importance of this is the 7-yr cycle and how the rotation in Gold, between the high near 1923 and the low near 1045 represent an 878 price range. 

The Northside (expansion) rally in Gold may very well move in expanding Fibonacci price structures, just like it did in Ys 2005 through 2012.  If this is the case, then we may expect to see an ultimate peak price in Gold well above 3500.

The rally that started in the last 2015 and ended in July 2016 totaled +331.1 (+31.67%).  The next price rally that started in August 2018 and ended in September 2019 totaled +399.4 (+34.22%).  If we take the current rally range (399.4) and divide it by the previous rally range (331.1), we end up with an expansion range of 121%.  The 2 unique rallies that happened just before the Y 2009 parabolic rally in Gold represented (+315.8: 2006) and (394.8: 2008).  The ratio of these 2 rallies is 125%. 

The Big Q: Could Gold have already set up for another parabolic rally well beyond 1923?

The research team believes Gold has already entered a technically valid Bullish Market trend.  We believe Gold miners will follow higher as Gold begins this next move higher. 

The reason we have not engaged in Miners, yet, is because we have not received any technically valid signals related to the Gold miners indicating they have also entered a new Bullish Market trend.

Gold is the safe-haven for the global market. 

Gold is a store of value and offers price appreciation when the global market risks are excessive.  Because of this, the sentiment across the global markets appears to be weakening in regards to forward expectations and valuation appreciation within the investment/asset classes.  If Gold continues to rally, consider it a strong indicator that the foundation of the global market valuation levels is weakening considerably.

Should USD retrace lower, Gold will see a price increase based on the renewed weakness of USD.  This would also assist in re-balancing global trade and economic issues with the USD moving lower as weakening global markets contract.

Miners are set up much like Gold was in early Y 2018. 

Resistance has been set up with multiple price Tops and any momentum rally above this level would technically qualify as a new Bullish Market trend for miners.

At this point, we believe the bottom in miners has already formed and are waiting for the qualifying technical confirmation of the Bullish trend to begin.  Jumping into this trade too early could result in unwanted risks as the price could still waffle around within the Stage 1 Base range.

Once you grasp the basic technical concept you will see these stages on every chart no matter the time frame and know when to focus on trading and when to ignore the charts.

The recent weakness in the US and global markets has prompted a moderately solid upside move in Gold and Silver.

But, we need to see a Gold move above recent resistance to qualify as a new Northside rally.  Miners are set up for a breakout technical move which we must also wait for.  We believe these 2 may move in unison if the global markets continue to contract throughout the end of Y 2019 and into Y 2020.

Have terrific weekend…