The Calm Before The Bitcoin: BTC/USD (BTC=X) Storm

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Bitcoin
Ticker: BTC=
Price: $11465.75

Bitcoin Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) has been holding above the 20-day exponential moving average ($11,137) for the past few days. The buyers purchased the dip to the $11,165 support on Oct. 20, which suggests accumulation at lower levels.

If the bulls can push the price above the downtrend line, the BTC/USD pair could retest the $11,719 resistance. A breakout of this level may resume the up-move with the first target at $12,000 and then $12,460.

Both the short-term and the long-term moving averages are sloping up and the relative strength index is above 61. This suggests that the bulls are in control.

This positive view will be invalidated if the pair turns down from the downtrend line and plummets below the 20-day EMA. Such a move could pull the price down to the next support at $10,500.

The 4-hour chart has formed a bearish descending triangle pattern that will complete on a breakdown and close (UTC time) below $11,165. This bearish setup has a pattern target of $10,611.

However, if the bulls can propel the price above the downtrend line, the bearish pattern will be invalidated. Such a move could attract short covering by the bears, resulting in a rally to $12,000.

The gradually upsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggests a minor advantage to the bulls.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 12,196.69.

The projected lower bound is: 10,733.04.

The projected closing price is: 11,464.87.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.6708. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 73 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 153.000 at 11,465.750. Volume was 87% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 12% narrower than normal.

Open        High         Low          Close        Volume
11,466.870  11,549.000   11,401.820   11,465.750   85,293
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period      50-period         200-period
Close:           11,378.75      10,824.35         9,807.26
Volatility:      42             43                54
Volume:          394,485        591,528           556,125

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 16.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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