The Bitcoin: BTC/USD (BTC=X) Life Raft: The End of Monetary & Fiscal Policy As We Know It

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Bitcoin
Ticker: BTC=
Price: $11745.00

Bitcoin Outlook

The live-streamed panel, starting at 8am EDT on Monday, October 19, will discuss “the benefits and risks of cross-border” digital currencies as well as their policy implications, the IMF announced late last week.

“This IMF webcast is highly anticipated in the crypto community and the chairman’s attendance speaks volumes to it’s importance in traditional finance,” Mati Greenspan, the founder of market analysis firm Quantum Economics, said via Telegram, adding: “Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have increasingly been on the minds and lips of those who govern our money for obvious reasons.”

Joining Fed chair Powell on the panel will be the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, Agustín Carstens; Nor Shamsiah, governor of Bank Negara Malaysia, and the governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority Ahmed Abdulkarim Alkholifey. The panel will be moderated by IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

Back in February this year, Powell appeared to move the bitcoin market when he seemed to acknowledge the potential power of digital currencies during testimony in front of Congress—sending the bitcoin price higher.

Powell said Facebook’s libra, a digital currency project that was almost regulated out of existence last year after being deemed too risky by most major central banks, was a “wake-up call” that a digital currency could come “fairly quickly” and in a way that is “quite widespread and systemically important.”

Technical Indicators

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 12,499.22.

The projected lower bound is: 11,003.91.

The projected closing price is: 11,751.56.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.6096. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 74 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 122.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 10.170 at 11,750.170. Volume was 90% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 3% narrower than normal.

Open        High         Low        Close        Volume
11,739.620  11,787.000  11,679.710  11,750.170   67,966
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period      200-period
Close:           11,444.79     10,831.23      9,833.85
Volatility:      43            43             54
Volume:          385,544       584,472        550,672

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 19.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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