Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock (TSLA) has surged 40% in a week
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has surged 40% over the past seven days. Tesla’s recovery comes amidst some updates from Wall Street about the electric car maker’s short-term and long-term prospects.
In a note earlier this week, Argus Research analyst Bill Selesky cut his rating on TSLA stock from “Buy” to “Hold.” Explaining his new outlook, Selesky stated that deliveries of the company would likely be lower due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, as well as the shuttering of Tesla’s production facilities.
“Prior to the outbreak, we had expected fairly robust deliveries from Tesla in 2020, as consumers continued to flock to the Model S, Model X, and more recently, the Model 3,” Selesky wrote, adding that Argus’ delivery forecast for Tesla this year has been updated to about 409,000 cars, a 19% decrease from the firm’s initial estimates.
Selesky further noted that Tesla still holds strong long-term prospects, though he believed that the company’s products would likely not be a priority for consumers in the near term.
“We still think that Tesla has strong long-term prospects. However, in the near term, we believe that consumers will focus on basic concerns (food, safety, employment, etc.) and expect consumer confidence and spending to take a major hit as consumers defer large discretionary purchases,” he wrote.
Similar to the Argus analyst, Citi analyst Itay Michaeli adjusted his expectations for the electric car maker this year. While he kept his “Buy” rating on TSLA stock, Michaeli lowered his price target for Tesla to $246 from $312. Citi’s 2020 delivery forecast for Tesla was also reduced to about 434,000 cars from the original 517,000.
Elaborating further, the Citi analyst stated that Tesla would likely post an adjusted loss in the first and second quarters, breaking even in the third quarter and posting a profit in the fourth quarter. Michaeli also mentioned that Tesla’s $2.3 billion capital raise in February “added an important cushion to absorb our modeled shutdown in Q2, when Tesla is likely to face operating losses and a working capital drain.”
Interestingly enough, UBS recently upgrade Tesla stock from “Sell” to “Neutral.” Analysts from the firm stated that the company has relatively high demand visibility and sustained tech leadership in the EV market. The firm also mentioned the Model Y and the Made-in-China Model 3, both of which could affect the company’s numbers this year.
“We reiterate our view that Tesla should be able to defend its technology leadership in EV powertrain, connectivity, and autonomy and rapidly gain market share. Also, we think demand for Tesla’s products is not at risk with oil at $30/bbl because its products are already on sticker price parity vs. equivalent premium cars (and superior in cost of ownership),” the UBS analysts noted.
Tesla stock is as volatile as ever, and as the greater market felt the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the electric car maker’s shares have swung wildly, going as low as $351 per share last week. On the flip side, Tesla stock has exhibited an equally spirited recovery, rising as much as 47% over the past seven days. This Thursday, TSLA stock traded as high as $559.98 per share after the opening bell.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 577.83.
The projected upper bound is: 682.36.
The projected lower bound is: 373.57.
The projected closing price is: 527.96.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.5998. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TESLA INC closed down -11.090 at 528.160. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 102% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
547.390 560.000 512.250 528.160 13,996
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 464.50 654.10 378.66
Volatility: 218 155 93
Volume: 20,997,788 21,145,362 12,139,335
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TESLA INC is currently 39.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of TSLA.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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