Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivery expectations at 77,000 cars — can they beat that?

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivery expectations at 77,000 cars — can they beat that?

Tesla is about to release its delivery and production numbers for the first quarter of 2020, and expectations have been revised down to 77,000 electric cars due to the coronavirus crisis.

Can they beat that?

Unlike most automakers who release monthly delivery and production numbers, Tesla releases its numbers quarterly — generally one to four days after the end of the quarter, which ended yesterday.

The first quarter is generally slow for automakers, but sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that Tesla was pushing hard with similar goals as its previous record quarter in some markets.

However, that was before the economy has taken a downturn due to the coronavirus pandemic, and that many businesses have been shutting down.

Wall Street analysts have been lowering their delivery target for Tesla over the past few days, and now the average is settling down at just over 77,000 units, according to Bloomberg:

Analysts on average estimate Tesla delivered roughly 77,400 cars worldwide last quarter, the first to include handovers of the new Model Y crossover. While that would be a jump from a disappointing result a year ago, it also would mark a more than 30% drop from the record deliveries Tesla reported for the last three months of 2019.

Here’s a chart of the different predictions from Wall Street:

Some delivery numbers have already come in from Europe with about 11,000 Tesla vehicles confirmed, but there are several major European markets that haven’t reported their March numbers just yet.

In China, Tesla sales were at about 7,000 units in January and February, according to car registration numbers.

Numbers for the North American market haven’t been released yet.

Electrek’s Take

Can Tesla beat 77,000 deliveries?

Until today, I believed that 80,000 deliveries were achievable, but now I’m not so sure.

Unless there’s a big surprise in Germany, France, or the UK in March, it looks like Europe is going to be at no more than 15,000 units for Tesla in Q1 2020, which is a big drop not just from last quarter but also compared to Q1 2019.

With March deliveries, I doubt China will be more than 12,000 units total for the quarter, bringing the total outside North America to no more than 27,000 units.

It means that Tesla needs to have delivered over 50,000 cars in North America over the last three months.

I don’t think it’s impossible, but I’d be surprised since the automaker relies so much on its end-of-the-quarter push, and everything points to the push being very weak this time due to the current crisis.

I think deliveries might have tracked closer to 40,000 units, putting the total at 67,000 cars.

Anything more than that would be a win in my book. I guess it depends on how many Model Y vehicles Tesla was able to produce and deliver.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 570.73.

The projected upper bound is: 635.09.

The projected lower bound is: 325.40.

The projected closing price is: 480.25.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 28.1053. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

TESLA INC closed down -42.440 at 481.560. Volume was 24% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 47% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
504.000 513.955 475.100 481.560 13,353,180
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 488.39 652.74 384.45
Volatility: 146 156 93
Volume: 19,397,564 21,232,766 12,298,296

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

TESLA INC is currently 25.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of TSLA.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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