Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) came roaring back

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) came roaring back

Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) came roaring back on Tuesday’s early morning trading, bouncing as high as $434.54 per share amid news of an upgrade from Wall Street. In a recent note, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas upgraded Tesla from “Underperform” to “Equal-Weight,” while putting a $460 per share price target for the electric car maker’s stock.

In their note, Jonas and his fellow analysts stated that their long-term model on Tesla remains intact despite the ongoing disruption of the coronavirus, which has affected the global markets and has forced automakers to cut production. Tesla is reportedly operating its main Fremont factory at just 25% capacity as per reports from BuzzFeed News, citing a spokesperson from the Alameda County Sheriff’s Office.

Apart from acknowledging the effects of the COVID-19 virus, the Morgan Stanley analysts also updated their fiscal 2020 delivery forecasts to include about one month of lost production at the Fremont factory. Thus, Jonas updated Morgan Stanley’s forecast for Tesla to 420,000 vehicles this year, about 7% lower than its initial 450,000-vehicle estimate for 2020.

Jonas also highlighted that Tesla is currently at a strong financial standing to weather the headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak. This is something that was strengthened by Tesla back in February, when the company decided to raise an additional $2.3 billion in an investment round. “We believe Tesla has sufficient liquidity and access to capital during this time,” Jonas wrote in his note.

So far, Tesla investors appear to have appreciated Morgan Stanley’s upgrade. During the opening bell, TSLA stock showed a lot of strength, climbing as high as 18%. Tesla shares are up about 36% in the last 12 months, beating the S&P 500, which has fallen about 15%.

Jonas’ TSLA upgrade comes at a time when Tesla’s over $8 billion in cash is looking more and more like a valuable asset for the company. This is notably evident as other automakers have started hinting at challenges that are to come.

In a recent update, for example, Ford announced that it would be suspending its dividends to shareholders as a way to preserve cash and financial flexibility. But this is not all. Ford also revealed other measures that would allow the company to stay afloat amidst the coronavirus pandemic, including fully drawing on the company’s credit lines to provide $15.4 billion of additional cash. Ford has withdrawn its 2020 financial guidance as well.

As of writing, TSLA stock is trading +11.85% at $404.02 per share.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 579.23.

The projected lower bound is: 274.39.

The projected closing price is: 426.81.

Candlesticks

A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.8144. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -110.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

TESLA INC closed up 66.420 at 427.640. Volume was 84% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 162% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
374.697 452.000 358.460 427.640 30,195,460
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 536.23 655.70 371.67
Volatility: 206 151 90
Volume: 19,875,966 21,934,630 12,054,950

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

TESLA INC is currently 15.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of TSLA.O (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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