Global stock markets were mixed overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and S&P 500 stock indexes had record-high closes Monday. However, more and more U.S. states are imposing restrictions on businesses and public gatherings, as Covid-19 rages and many hospital beds are full or close to it. This atmosphere in the U.S. and in Europe cannot help but dent trader and investor risk appetite heading into holidays that are likely to see families separated. Despite the very encouraging news on the vaccine front seen recently, there are dark days that lie ahead for the U.S., Europe and other countries hard hit by the pandemic.
It could also be that trader/investor sentiment has been somewhat dented by reports the Trump administration is planning to take a very hard line on China over the next two months, before Trump leaves office, including reportedly taking some steps that the incoming Biden administration would find hard to roll back. Just today, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) came out with a plan to require Chinese companies traded on U.S. stock exchanges to have auditors overseen by the U.S. If the Chinese firms won’t comply they get shut out of U.S. stock exchanges.
It’s a big U.S. reports day, highlighted by retail sales for October that are forecast to be up 0.5% from September.
It’s worth mentioning that the “softs” futures markets (coffee, cocoa, sugar, orange juice and cotton) all had big upside days Monday, with most of those markets hitting multi-month highs. Part of those gains may be due to analysts at Citibank making a call that the U.S. dollar will decline by up to 20% in 2021. Most raw commodities for sale on the world market are priced in U.S. dollars. When the greenback declines, it makes those commodities cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency—possibly leading to more demand. Analysts at Citibank believe the Federal Reserve will maintain a very easy monetary policy even if inflation rises alongside the U.S. economy’s expected recovery, which in turn would prompt U.S. government bond and note yields to rise. Keep in mind these hotshot prognosticators like Citi and Goldman Sachs don’t have any better track records at calling major market moves than the other banks or brokers/analysts. The only difference may be that the big wheels front-loaded their trades and then made their calls public.
The U.S. dollar index is lower again early today. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices near steady and trading around $41.30 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.89%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing index, manufacturing and trade inventories, and Treasury international capital data.
Silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $22.625. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $25.155 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $24.255 and then at $24.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 26.39.
The projected lower bound is: 22.45.
The projected closing price is: 24.42.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.1831. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 39 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.001 at 24.467. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 57% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 24.467 24.530 24.310 24.467 6,520
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 24.60 24.58 20.35 Volatility: 53 51 58 Volume: 652 130 33
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 20.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.