Safe-haven gold and silver prices are solidly lower at midday Thursday despite eroding trader/investor risk appetite and global stock markets that were weaker today. This seemingly conflicting scenario has played out often the past few months, confounding the precious metals market bulls. Still, such situations have also invited metals bulls to step in and buy the dips to keep the overall price uptrends alive in gold and silver. October gold futures were last down $20.20 at $1,941.80 and December Comex silver was last down $0.391 at $27.09 an ounce.
December silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a five-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $29.235 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $25.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $27.865 and then at $28.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $26.405 and then at $26.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 30.15.
The projected lower bound is: 24.18.
The projected closing price is: 27.16.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.4618. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 28 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.102 at 26.998. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 57% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 27.010 27.131 26.919 26.998 9,700
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 27.01 25.47 18.96 Volatility: 15 74 52 Volume: 970 194 49
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 42.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.
Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.