Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Trade Deal – the Devil is in the Details

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Trade Deal – the Devil is in the Details

Silver prices have started the new trading week with gains. In the European session, silver is trading at $17.04, up 0.65% on the day.

Trade Deal – the Devil is in the Details

The U.S. and China announced on Friday that a limited trade deal had been reached, after more than two years of protracted and difficult negotiations. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday that the deal was “totally done”, although no date has yet been announced for a formal signing. At the same time, some issues remain, such as the scale of Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products. U.S. President Trump insisted that China would buy $50 billion worth of U.S. farm goods “pretty soon”. However, this claim could prove to be over-optimistic. Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, noted that “the scale of purchases seems implausible and Chinese officials were reluctant to mention any specific target during their press conference.” The agreement has led to immediate dividends – the U.S. held off from implementing new tariffs on Sunday and China also agreed not to apply retaliatory tariffs.

Retail Sales Slip

Consumer spending was soft in November, which could be a worrying sign ahead of the crucial Christmas shopping season. The headline figure dipped to 0.2%, down from 0.3%. This was shy of the estimate of 0.5%. Core retail sales slowed to 0.1%, compared to 0.2% a month earlier. This missed the forecast of 0.4%.

Silver Technical Analysis

The silver price forecast remains neutral, as it is unclear which direction the pair will take next. On the upside, the 200-EMA is at 17.14, just below resistance at 17.25. On the downside, we find immediate support at 16.93. This is followed by the 50-EMA, at 16.72. Next is 16.50, which has held since August.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 17.56.

The projected lower bound is: 16.49.

The projected closing price is: 17.02.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.2684. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 72 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.101 at 17.033. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 58% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
16.946 17.082 16.850 17.033 32,237
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 16.85 17.27 16.27
Volatility: 23 20 24
Volume: 3,224 645 161

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 4.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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