Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) stalling at underside of 2003 trend-line

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) stalling at underside of 2003 trend-line

Silver has been outperforming gold recently and this could continue to be the case as reversion to the mean unfolds in the gold/silver ratio. Looking at silver by itself, it is holding strong right now, however; it has a sizable trend-line running up from 2003 to overcome.

The last time the line was visited – January/February – silver turned lower twice, with the second turn resulting in significant weakness. It could dent the current rally similarly, but if silver’s wedge breakout last week has anything to say about it, then we should see price pull off only modestly or consolidate before trading on through.

Even if we see a bullish resolotion at some point, resistance is resistance until it’s not, so it will be respected as such until it is broken. This gives pause to longs, perhaps skews short-term forces in favor of shorts.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.33.

The projected upper bound is: 16.87.

The projected lower bound is: 15.98.

The projected closing price is: 16.43.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 34 white candles and 16 black candles for a net of 18 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.1419. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 74.33. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 117.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.055 at 16.395. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 150% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
16.350 16.525 16.140 16.395 8,708

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 15.77 15.06 15.06
Volatility: 20 19 18
Volume: 871 174 44

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAG= is currently 8.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAG= is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

#shayne heffernan#SILVER 1 OZ 999 NY#Silver price#trading#xag price#XAG=X