Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) showing signs of exhaustion

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) showing signs of exhaustion

Silver markets did very little during the trading session to dissuade the sellers as we have been struggling to find direction. The market has recently pull back from the $15.00 level and it looks very likely that we are going to continue to see more bearish pressure than anything else. If we break down below the $14.00 level, then it’s likely that the market could go down to the $13.00 level which was the top of the consolidation area below. That should then offer plenty of support.

A bounce from that area should be a nice buying opportunity, as it would be a “higher low.” By doing so, it could get a bit of a bottom going, and perhaps be the catalyst that silver needs in order to turn around longer term. If the market were to break above the $15.00 level, then the market could go looking towards the 50 day EMA above. After that, we could even be going towards the $17.00 level.

Keep in mind that the silver markets are a bit different, due to the fact that although they are a precious metal, silver also has a major industrial component which of course is suffering in current trends. Ultimately, this is a market that I think probably pulls back before finding buyers. I’m not necessarily interested in shorting this market, rather I am looking for value for the longer term. I like the idea of owning silver, but I would be cautious about adding too much leverage into the position. Be cautious, but I do like the idea of picking up value.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.51.

The projected upper bound is: 15.46.

The projected lower bound is: 12.70.

The projected closing price is: 14.08.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 72.3718. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.037 at 14.152. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 246% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
14.037 14.226 13.824 14.152 29,451
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 13.57 16.54 17.02
Volatility: 65 59 37
Volume: 2,945 589 147

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 16.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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