Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Punches Above 18.00, Hits Wall

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Punches Above 18.00, Hits Wall

Silver Punches Above 18.00, Hits Wall

Silver recorded solid gains last week, climbing 3.3 percent. The upward swing has continued this week, with gains of close to one percent. For the month of December, silver was up an impressive 4.8 percent.

So what’s wrong with this picture?

Although silver posted strong gains in late December, it is clearly having trouble making headway above the 18.00 level, which has psychological significance. Silver pushed as high as 18.14 on December 31st but was unable to consolidate these gains, as the metal retracted and ended the year below at 17.82. Will silver make another attempt to break the resilient level? Or will investors look elsewhere and send silver prices lower?

With markets still marked by thin volumes this week, traders should act with caution. The current environment is more favorable for short-term traders, who are comfortable with entering and exiting the market quickly.

Ahead – Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Minutes

The New Year’s holiday has caused a shift in the calendar, so Friday will be somewhat busy, although trade volume is likely to be light. Manufacturing PMI is expected to accelerate, with an estimate of 49.0 December, up from 48.1 pts in November. Still, the manufacturing sector has looked weak, as the PMI has not pointed to expansion since July. We’ll get a look at the FOMC minutes from the December policy meeting, when rate-setters stayed on the sidelines and maintained the benchmark rate.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 18.57.

The projected lower bound is: 17.47.

The projected closing price is: 18.02.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 5 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 54.7350. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.179 at 18.009. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.855 18.091 17.750 18.009 56,611
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.67 17.27 16.40
Volatility: 15 20 24
Volume: 5,661 1,132 283

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 9.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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