Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) prices pop above price channel
Our last silver price update was April 29, when we stated “little progress has been made since April 15 and the waves do not appear motive. Therefore, we will not be surprised if silver makes a deeper cut and one more jab towards lower prices.”
Lower prices were cut indeed. Remember, back on March 25, silver prices were trading near 15.53 and we discussed the potential for another wave lower into the 14.40-14.80 price zone which may lead to a strong bullish reversal. Now that silver prices have arrived, we have the minimum waves in place to count the three-month long correction as over.
Our last silver price update from May 20 discussed several wave relationships appearing near 14.40. The larger corrective pattern is a bearish Elliott wave zigzag that began from February 20 (left side of chart).
Wave ‘c’ of this zigzag pattern is an ending diagonal. There are a lot of wave relationships showing up near 14.40 (which was the bottom edge of our reversal zone identified March 25).
78.6% retracement of the November 2018 to February 2019 uptrend is at 14.39
In the zigzag, wave ‘c’ is equal to the length of wave ‘a’ at 14.40
As a result, there is a lot of evidence in a relatively small zone suggesting a bullish reversal and pivot.
Earlier today, silver prices popped up outside of the green channel signaling a temporary and possibly medium-term low is in place. If the ending diagonal is finished, then a swift rally to 15.64 is a primary target. From there, additional rallies may reach 16.60 and 18.00. The November 2018 low of 13.89 should contain any further drops under this Elliott wave analysis. If 13.89 is broken, then some other wave pattern is at play.
Therefore, the current Elliott wave for silver prices is that wave 2 or (B) has ended and is rallying in wave 3 or (C) towards 16.60 and possibly 18.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.91.
The projected upper bound is: 15.01.
The projected lower bound is: 14.30.
The projected closing price is: 14.65.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.1376. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 142.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.105 at 14.670. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.788 14.815 14.670 14.670 8,669
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.55 14.84 14.90
Volatility: 16 15 18
Volume: 867 173 43
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 67 periods.