Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Muted Response to Phase 1 Deal

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Muted Response to Phase 1 Deal

Silver prices have ticked higher in Wednesday trade. In the European session, silver is trading at $17.06, up $0.05 or 0.38% on the day.

Muted Response to Phase 1 Deal

There was plenty of fanfare in the White House, as President Trump gushed about the new trade deal with China. The agreement is the first breakthrough in the bitter trade war that has rocked the global economy. Still, the deal is limited in scope and some key details remain unclear. Trump stated that China had committed to purchase some $50 billion in U.S. agricultural products, but there was no confirmation from Chinese officials. Even with the agreement, the U.S. will continue to impose 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with a 7.5% tariff on another $120 billion of Chinese products. Precious metals have shown a guarded response, as gold and silver prices have shown limited movement to the trade deal.

Ahead – Final GDP

Investors are looking ahead to Friday, when the U.S. releases Final GDP for the third quarter. This will be the third and final estimate. The second estimate came in at 2.1%, beating the forecast of 1.9%. Final GDP is expected to confirm this figure, which indicates that the U.S. economy is growing at a respectable clip. A better than expected GDP release would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver has steadied around the 17.00 level, after recovering from sharp losses seen in early December. The silver price forecast remains neutral. Silver is having a tough time moving higher, as it is facing some immediate resistance barriers. The 50-EMA continues to hover just above the candlesticks and is at 17.14. This is followed by a resistance line at 17.25. On the downside, the 200-EMA is at 16.59. Below, there is support at 16.50. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level follows immediately at 16.41.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 17.48.

The projected lower bound is: 16.42.

The projected closing price is: 16.95.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.5178. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 74 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 46. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.037 at 16.965. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 61% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.000 17.069 16.843 16.965 37,545
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 16.85 17.24 16.29
Volatility: 17 19 24
Volume: 3,755 751 188

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 4.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.

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