Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Markets Struggled

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Markets Struggled

Silver markets have gotten hammered during the trading session although they are positive while I am recording this. The market trying to rally and recover some of the losses from Friday but has seen the 200 day EMA offer quite a bit of resistance. Perhaps this is due to the fact that there is a huge emphasis placed upon whether or not there is going to be any industrial growth. Remember that the concerns about the Chinese situation will continue to have people putting negativity on anything along the lines of industrial growth.

If that’s going to be the case, the silver markets should be punished as they have been. At this point in time it looks like we are going to try to continue to go down towards the $16 level, but if we were to turn around and recover to break above the 200 day EMA, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign as it would not only wipe out the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, but would also clear the 200 day EMA. At that point, the market is likely to go towards the 50 day EMA above. At this point, the market is likely to continue to go much higher at that point but it’s going to take a lot of bullish pressure in order to have that happen. The $16.00 level is probably more likely going to be visited after the mass slaughter that we have seen to anything looking remotely like risk appetite coming into the market. With this, fading rallies until we break the 200 day EMA probably makes sense for short-term traders. Longer-term traders will probably continue to look for value underneath.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 17.48.

The projected lower bound is: 15.93.

The projected closing price is: 16.71.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.1235. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 39 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -152.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.032 at 16.720. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 86% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
16.724 16.740 16.700 16.720 198
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.75 17.83 17.04
Volatility: 41 28 26
Volume: 20 4 1

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 1.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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