Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Markets Slam Into Bottom Of Uptrend Line

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Markets Slam Into Bottom Of Uptrend Line

Silver markets rallied significantly during the week, slamming into the bottom of the previous uptrend line, which of course should offer quite a bit of resistance. As we close out the week it certainly looks as if we are doing just that, pulling back from the trendline. If we break above that area, roughly the $18.05 level, then the market is likely to go much higher. However, we are overbought at this point so don’t be surprised at all to see this market pullback. The next question of course is whether or not it’s a pullback or a continuation of a breakdown.

I think at this point, a lot of traders will probably be on the sidelines until after New Year’s Day, and it’s really not until January 6 that we will have full liquidity back as we not only have the New Year’s Day holiday, but we also have the jobs figure coming out of the United States shortly thereafter. With this, it does look like we are starting to get bullish again, but I would hold off on longer-term positions for at least another week as we could get a lot of choppy trading in the short term. Focusing on shorter-term charts probably will be the best way going forward, and therefore it’s ultimately a scenario where we need to be very cautious or perhaps even on the sidelines in general between now and the January 6 session. All things being equal, this is a market that is a bit overextended again, and does tend to move rather rapidly.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 18.30.

The projected lower bound is: 17.22.

The projected closing price is: 17.76.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAG=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.0255. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 146.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.133 at 17.754. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.887 17.967 17.710 17.754 0
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.31 17.24 16.35
Volatility: 14 20 24
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 8.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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