Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Markets Continue to Form Base
Silver markets broke down a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, slicing below the $12.00 level again. This is an area that is important on longer-term charts, but at this point I am looking to see whether or not it is going to hold. At this point, it does look as silver is trying to find a little bit of a base here, and I think if we can close on a daily chart above the $13.00 level, then it’s likely that the market goes looking towards the $15.00 level. At this point, that is a sign that the oversold condition is about to be corrected. However, keep in mind that silver is highly levered to industrial demand, and right now there are a lot of concerns as to whether or not there will be any.
If we do break down below the lows and close below there on the daily chart, then I will be looking for the market to go down towards the $10.00 level where I will become even more interested in buying this market. At this point, I do believe that the value hunters will be all over it, but I think the “buy-and-hold” traders will also be very interested and $10.00 when it comes to silver. I think at this point it’s likely that the market will eventually find enough momentum to break to the higher levels, but it could be more of a process and quite frankly the more time we take to build up enough momentum to the upside, the better it will be because a lot of people will be convinced to join.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 16.07.
The projected upper bound is: 13.18.
The projected lower bound is: 10.71.
The projected closing price is: 11.94.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 1 white candles and 9 black candles for a net of 8 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.9787. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 13.73. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 51 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -130.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.078 at 12.058. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 440% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
11.935 12.070 11.893 12.058 1,675
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.79 17.18 17.07
Volatility: 76 52 35
Volume: 168 34 8
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 29.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAG= is currently in an oversold condition.
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