Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) looking very much like a market that is ready to rollover
Silver markets have been drifting a bit lower over the last couple of days, as we said above the $14.00 level. If we can break down below that level, then it’s likely that we go much lower, perhaps down to at least to the $13.00 level, possibly even lower than that. I would anticipate a certain amount of support at the $13 level though, as it is the top of the previous consolidation area, and therefore a certain amount of “market memory” could come into play.
Even if we break below the $13 level, the $12 level will also be extraordinarily supportive as well, as the area had caused a major bounce. That of course should have a certain amount of buying pressure built into it, so I think somewhere between the $12.00 level on the bottom and the $13.00 level above there we should see a certain amount of value hunting. The market making a “higher low” could be the beginning of a complete turnaround. However, if we were to break down below the $12.00 level, then it’s likely that we will then go to the $10.00 level next as it is a major support level on longer-term charts.
There is an alternate scenario where the market breaks above the $15.00 level, and simply takes off. I don’t think that is as likely, but it is a possibility. On that move I would anticipate that we would first go looking towards the $16.00 level, perhaps pull back slightly, and then go looking towards $17.00 level. That being said, the fact that the industrial demand has fallen so precipitously leads me to believe that silver will struggle.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.43.
The projected upper bound is: 15.22.
The projected lower bound is: 12.47.
The projected closing price is: 13.85.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.8791. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.045 at 13.925. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 221% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
13.945 14.121 13.800 13.925 30,121
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.75 16.46 17.02
Volatility: 55 59 37
Volume: 3,012 602 151
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 18.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.
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