Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) limited by firmer global equity markets

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) limited by firmer global equity markets

Gold and silver prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading Tuesday. However, gains in the safe-haven metals are being limited by firmer global equity markets, including the U.S. stock indexes trading very close to their yearly and all-time highs. The gold and silver markets are in need of a dose of bullish news as the geopolitical front has quieted down recently. December gold futures were last up $1.30 an ounce at 1,489.50. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.003 at $17.605 an ounce.

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Trader and investor attitudes worldwide remain generally upbeat early this week. The U.S.-China trade negotiations appear to be progressing. President Trump said Monday afternoon the talks are “coming along very well,” suggesting a trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies could be signed as early as next month.

The Brexit situation remains in limbo this week, after a hoped-for weekend deal between the U.K. and the European Union fell through. The British Parliament is moving to again delay a vote to seal the Brexit deal. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants a resolution to the matter sooner. The uncertainty of the matter is prompting some risk aversion from European traders.

European Union officials have warned five countries about the EU budget constricts not being met, which is also causing some concern among European market watchers.

A heavy slate of U.S. corporate earnings reports this week is the focus of U.S. stock market traders, amid no fresh geopolitical flare-ups at present.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices firmer in early U.S. trading today and trading around $53.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up on a mild corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that drove the index to a nine-week low on Monday.  

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the Richmond Fed business survey, and existing home sales.

December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are working on negating a six-week-old downtrend line in place on the daily bar chart.

Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $16.94. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $17.895 and then at $18.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $17.455 and then at $17.33.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 18.48.

The projected lower bound is: 16.57.

The projected closing price is: 17.52.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.6244. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 33 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.054 at 17.511. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 55% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.559 17.663 17.390 17.511 32,645
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.53 17.77 15.96
Volatility: 14 34 23
Volume: 3,265 653 163

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 9.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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