Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Investors Brace for Soft CPI

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Investors Brace for Soft CPI

The U.S. releases key consumer data for November this week. On Wednesday, we’ll get a look at consumer inflation, followed by retail sales reports on Friday. Inflation levels remain low, with the headline and core releases both expected to post a modest gain of 0.2 percent. Investors are keeping a close eye on inflation indicators, as low inflation means that the Federal Reserve is less constrained with regard to lowering interest rates.

Fed Expected to Stay on Sidelines

The Federal Reserve will make its rate announcement at 19:00 GMT. It is a given that the Fed will maintain the benchmark rate, with the CME Group setting the odds at 97.8 percent that rate levels remain in place. Investors will be focusing on the rate statement and FOMC projections. The U.S. economy has produced unexpectedly strong data lately, such as GDP and nonfarm payrolls. If the rate statement has a hawkish tone, we could see risk apprehension dip and drag down silver prices.

Silver Technical Analysis

On the upside, the 200-EMA is at 17.14. This is closely followed by resistance at 17.25. On the downside, the 50-EMA line remains in the candlesticks, at 16.56. This is followed by support at 16.50, which has held firm since August. With the 16.50 line under strong pressure, we could see this line tested shortly.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 17.42.

The projected lower bound is: 16.34.

The projected closing price is: 16.88.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 30.7439. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 69 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.236 at 16.890. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 59% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
16.655 16.960 16.550 16.890 51,526
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 16.84 17.30 16.24
Volatility: 24 20 24
Volume: 5,153 1,031 258

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 4.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.

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