Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) demand for the safe-haven metals

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) demand for the safe-haven metals

Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in midday trading Tuesday, with gold turning around modest early losses as trouble is brewing on a few fronts, prompting demand for the safe-haven metals. Earlier today gold prices had hit a seven-week low and silver a six-week bottom. December gold futures were last up $15.50 an ounce at 1,488.20. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.257 at $17.25 an ounce.

A weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing report this morning that saw the ISM manufacturing index fall to 47.8 in September from 49.1 in August helped to turn the gold market around. The ISM data falls into the camp of the monetary policy doves who want to see the U.S. Federal Reserve further ease interest rates. The ISM report also dropped the U.S. dollar index down from its new high for the year that was scored earlier today, and also dropped the U.S. stock indexes lower on the day. Both U.S. stock indexes and the USDX are trading nearer their session lows at midday.

Also supporting safe-haven gold and silver is a significant escalation in protesting in Hong Kong, on China’s national holiday for the Communist Party. Reports Tuesday said one protester was shot with live ammunition by police, and the demonstrations are becoming more violent. If mainland China steps in to intervene in the matter it would quickly become a front-burner issue for the marketplace, which at present is not being significantly impacted by the situation.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 18.24.

The projected lower bound is: 16.26.

The projected closing price is: 17.25.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.6966. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -160.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.240 at 17.235. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 39% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
16.991 17.319 16.850 17.235 0
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.82 17.49 15.81
Volatility: 39 35 23
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 9.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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