Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) continues to move higher as markets are optimistic that coronavirus will be contained
Silver Holds Above $15.00 As Markets Believe That Virus Containment Measures Are Working
Silver continues its upside move after it breached the 20 EMA level several days ago. Equity markets remain optimistic which also helps precious metals in the current market environment.
The U.S. Dollar Index has corrected to the 100 level but does not experience additional downside despite the positive dynamics in riskier assets. Meanwhile, gold continues its attempts to get above the $1700 level, but so far these attempts have been futile.
I maintain my conviction that the whole precious metal segment will get a boost if gold manages to settle above $1700 as such a move will lead to an influx of additional money into the whole sector.
At this point, it is unclear which additional catalysts are necessary for precious metal upside.
On the one hand, another leg down in equity market will lead to increased safe haven buying. However, it remains to be seen whether precious metals will serve as safe haven assets in this scenario.
During the early stage of the current crisis, only the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasuries were seen as bullet-proof safe haven assets, while other asset classes often experienced downside on negative economic or healthcare news.
On the other hand, U.S. dollar weakness could be of great help for silver and other precious metals. Such a scenario demands continued improvements in investor confidence, which could come from stabilization on the virus front or from new economic stimulus.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 16.38.
The projected lower bound is: 13.60.
The projected closing price is: 14.99.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.6708. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 114.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.005 at 15.045. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 62% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.949 15.071 14.870 15.045 3,335
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.55 16.11 17.00
Volatility: 36 60 38
Volume: 334 67 17
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 11.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.